{"id":610,"date":"2016-05-05T20:16:00","date_gmt":"2016-05-05T18:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/?p=610"},"modified":"2021-01-02T20:17:50","modified_gmt":"2021-01-02T19:17:50","slug":"nota-sobre-calidad-de-predicciones-marzo-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/?p=610","title":{"rendered":"NOTA SOBRE CALIDAD DE PREDICCIONES (Marzo 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\">Con el objetivo de acompa\u00f1ar a nuestras predicciones con un indicador de calidad, hemos llevado a cabo un an\u00e1lisis exhaustivo de los errores asociados a cada horizonte de predicci\u00f3n, (es decir, el n\u00famero de meses hasta el cierre de a\u00f1o).<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">A partir de esta informaci\u00f3n se han definido tres categor\u00edas basadas en la magnitud de los errores absolutos porcentuales medios (EAPM) observados:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>errores inferiores al 2% (que se denotan con ***),<\/li>\n<li>errores inferiores al 5% (**) y<\/li>\n<li>errores inferiores al 10% (*).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Teniendo en cuenta estos criterios, incorporamos a nuestras publicaciones el indicador de calidad de las predicciones, que como consecuencia de su definici\u00f3n cambiar\u00e1 en funci\u00f3n del horizonte de predicci\u00f3n considerado.<\/p>\n<div class=\"pdf24Plugin-cp\"> \t<form name=\"pdf24Form0\" method=\"post\" action=\"https:\/\/doc2pdf.pdf24.org\/wordpress.php\" target=\"pdf24PopWin\" onsubmit=\"var pdf24Win = window.open('about:blank', 'pdf24PopWin', 'resizable=yes,scrollbars=yes,width=600,height=250,left='+(screen.width\/2-300)+',top='+(screen.height\/3-125)+''); pdf24Win.focus(); if(typeof pdf24OnCreatePDF === 'function'){void(pdf24OnCreatePDF(this,pdf24Win));}\"> \t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"blogCharset\" value=\"Cw1x07UAAA==\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"blogPosts\" value=\"MwQA\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"blogUrl\" value=\"yygpKSi20tcvLy\/XK83LzC\/LTE3J10st1s\/ILC5IzMnMywYA\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"blogName\" value=\"88gsLkjMyczL1nUsLiktykwsBgA=\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"blogValueEncoding\" value=\"gzdeflate base64\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"postId_0\" value=\"MzM0AAA=\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"postTitle_0\" value=\"8\/MPcVQI9ncKclVwdvTxdHF0UXBxVQgIcnXxdHb29PdzDVbQ8E0sqspXMDIwNNMEAA==\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"postLink_0\" value=\"yygpKSi20tcvLy\/XK83LzC\/LTE3J10st1s\/ILC5IzMnMy9a3L7A1MzQAAA==\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"postAuthor_0\" value=\"88gsLkjMyczL1nUsLiktykwsBgA=\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"postDateTime_0\" value=\"MzIwNNM1MAUiBSMDKwNTKwMDAA==\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"postContent_0\" value=\"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\" \/> \t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pdf24.org\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"www.pdf24.org\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf24-post-to-pdf\/img\/pdf_32x32.png\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" height=\"32\" \/><\/a> \t\t<span class=\"pdf24Plugin-cp-space\">&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span> \t\t<span class=\"pdf24Plugin-cp-text\">Enviar art\u00edculo en formato PDF<\/span> \t\t<span class=\"pdf24Plugin-cp-space\">&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span> \t\t<input class=\"pdf24Plugin-cp-input\" style=\"margin: 0px;\" type=\"text\" name=\"sendEmailTo\" placeholder=\"Correo electr\u00f3nico\" \/> \t\t<input class=\"pdf24Plugin-cp-submit\" style=\"margin: 0px;\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Enviar\" \/> \t<\/form> <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Con el objetivo de acompa\u00f1ar a nuestras predicciones con un indicador de calidad, hemos llevado a cabo un an\u00e1lisis exhaustivo de los errores asociados a cada horizonte de predicci\u00f3n, (es decir, el n\u00famero de meses hasta el cierre de a\u00f1o). A partir de esta informaci\u00f3n se han definido tres categor\u00edas basadas en la magnitud de &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,39],"tags":[45,43],"class_list":["post-610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-metodologia","category-notas-metodologicas","tag-calidad-predicciones","tag-metodologia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=610"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":611,"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610\/revisions\/611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unioviedo.es\/hispalink\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}