Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors

Ekaterina Grushevenko


The article describes study results on the development of methods for forecasting the demand for petroleum products, some petroleum product groups in the world and in some countries node(nodes). The developed method is based on the combination of different forecasting approaches: correlation, factor, technical, economic and econometric analysis with mathematic economic model elements.  The method may be used in the performance of a wide range of tasks: from specific petroleum product market forecasting, such as aviation kerosene or motor gasoline, to system study of the world petroleum market development prospects and the future petroleum role in the energy balance of individual countries and regions. 

Full Text:



Behrang M.A., Assareh E., Ghalambaz M., Assari M.R., Noghrehabadi A.R. (2011) Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm), Energy, #36, 5649-5654.

Bhattacharyya S., Timilsina G.R. (2009) Modeling energy demand of developing countries: are the specific features adequately captured? Energy Policy, #38, 1979-1990.

Bouachera T., Mazraati M. (2007) Fuel demand and car ownership modeling in India. OPEC Review XXXI (1) Vienna, Austria.

Button K., Ndoh N., Hine J. (1993) Modeling vehicle ownership and use in low income countries. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy #27, 51-67.

Cheze B., Gastineau P., Chevallier J. (2011) Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025), Energy Policy, #39, 5147-5158.

Cleveland C.J., Kaufmann R.K., Stern D.I. (2000) Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy, Ecological Economics, #32, 301-317.

Forouzanfar M., Doustmohammadi A., Hasanzadeh S., Shakouri H. (2012) Transport energy demand forecast using multi-level genetic programming, Applied Energy, # 91, 496-503.

Grigoriev, L., Kurdin, A. (2013) Economic Growth and Demand for Energy, Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VSE, #3 p. 414-432

Grushevenko, D., Grushevenko, E. (2015) Countries grouping for petroleum products demand forecasting using cluster analysis, Neft, Gaz i Biznes, №2 (2015), 23-26

Grushevenko, E., Grushevenko, D. (2012) Unconventional Oil Potential Tends to Change the World Oil Market, CSCanada Energy Science and Technology, Vol.4, №1, DOI:10.3968/j.est.1923847920120401.178

International Energy Agency (2014) Energy Technology Perspectives 2014, Paris

International Energy Agency (2011) World Energy Model – Methodology and Assumptions, available at (accessed 20 March 2015).

International Energy Agency (2014) World Energy Outlook, Paris

Jonas, A. K., (2007) Forecasts Of Petroleum Demand Transport, Transport, Vol XXII, No 1, 9–13

Makarov, A., Galkina, A., Grushevenko, E. (2014) Global Energy Markets Outlook up to 2040, MEMO Journal, №1 (2014), 3-20

Makarov, A., Mitrova, T., Grigoryev, L. (2013) Global and Russia Energy outlook to 2040, available at (accessed 1 April 2015).

Mitrova, T., Galkina, A. (2013), Inter-fuel Competition, Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VSE, No 3, pp 394-413

Scott K.R. (2015) Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand, Energy, # 79, 40-49.

Tetsuya, N. (2006) Supply and Demand Analysis on Petroleum Products and Crude Oils for Asia and the World KOMIYAMA, The Energy Data Modeling Center The Institute of Energy Economy, Japan

U.S. Department of Energy (2014), Transportation Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation available at (accessed 9 March 2015).

Wang, M., Huo, H., Johnson, L., He, D (2006) Projections of Chinese Motor Vehicle Growth, Oil Demand, and CO2 Emissions through 2050, Energy Systems Division

World Energy Council (2011), Energy & Mobility Background material report, London



  • There are currently no refbacks.

ISSN: 2254-4380